Monday, January 23, 2012

Detroit Districts and the Michigan Primary

The first maps for the seven City Council districts which must now be set up in Detroit according to the City Charter revisions which were approved last November, have been released. Once everyone has had their say, they almost surely will not be the final map. But the real problems with Detroit will not be solved by political gerrymandering. They will be solved when the people elect good representatives. Draw all the lines you want, but remember, a rose by any other name...

Newt Gingrich has won South Carolina. Now we have had three Republican contests, and three Republican winners now that Rick Santorum has proven the actual winner of the Iowa Caucuses. We can now safely discount the Romney win in New Hampshire: it was in his backyard and everyone figured he'd win it anyway. We shouldn't put too much faith in Gingrich's win Saturday either. Sure, since 1980 the Republican who won South Carolina has been the eventual nominee, but that really doesn't mean anything. It as likely as not is just a statistical anomaly.

It is probably safe to count Ron Paul out. Yes, he could shock the GOP, but our money isn't on it. The occasional surprise notwithstanding, he'll poll his 10-15 percent and that's all he'll poll. But having said all that, where does this leave the Republican Party?

Apparently with a more wide open race than it anticipated. It may even be such that the Michigan Republican Primary, slated for February 28th, might actually be in play. The Michigan vote might matter. Farther down the line, there's even talk of the first real convention battle since Ford and Reagan in 1976.

It's all just talk right now, but still, the primary election season may be worth watching after all. Stay tuned.

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