Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Hang it up, Newt

Super Tuesday has come and gone, and there is still no clear winner for the GOP nomination for President this November. Yet there are still thing we can learn from the primaries thus far.

Mitt Romney is a weak candidate. To be sure, there are places where he's won big: Vermont and Massachusetts, and Virginia. But the Green Mountain and Bay States are essentially one and the same as part of Romney's home turf. Those victories can be significantly discounted. The same can be said of Virginia, where only he and Ron Paul were on the ballot. But what of his other wins?

He barely won Ohio, as he barely won Michigan, two important states in this fall's election. In both states he carried only a plurality, and insignificant pluralities at that. Santorum would have won both states if he had been the only conservative in the running. Idaho appears to be the only important victory outside of New England for Romney, as he he won by an even lesser plurality in Alaska than nearby. In short, there's an awful lot of distrust for Romney among Republicans in general, and conservatives in particular. What does it all mean?

It means we should join the growing number of right wing voices and tell Newt Gingrich to get out of the race.

A simple look at the current delegate count demonstrates that a conservative can get the Republican nomination. Romney current has the lead with 415, followed by Santorum with 176, Gingrich with 105, and Paul 47. But taking away the supporters on Gingrich in both Michigan and Ohio would have likely given Santorum wins there, with the resulting increase of delegates for Romney. Get Gingrich off the ballot in Georgia, where between he and Santorum more than 66% of GOP voters cast ballots against Romney, and Santorum likely wins. One wonders too, with 57% of voters going for either he or Santorum there, what result there might have been without Newt winning in what is indeed his backyard. As with Vermont and Massachusetts and Romney, both Newt's wins can be heavily discounted.

So with upcoming contests in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Kansas, and Illinois, and with four of those primaries or caucuses in conservative land, how might the obviously preferred conservative, Rick Santorum, perform without Gingrich around? Santorum already holds a strong plurality in Alabama, which ought to become a majority with Newt gone (recent polls there show Santorum/Gingrich at 61% combined there). To cut to the chase, it appears as though conservatives can derail Romney, if they can unite.

Get out, Newt. Your day in the sun is done, and you're only blocking it from shining on a winning candidate. We need to take strides as a team in order to have a conservative on the ballot. If our choice is Obama or Obama lite this November, it will surely be your fault.

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