Saturday, October 29, 2016

November just got a lot more interesting

Can our election get any more, oh, I don't know, unusual, fantastic; bizarre? Less than three weeks after an October surprise appeared to doom Donald Trump's campaign, up comes news that the FBI (the Federal Bureau of Investigation) is reopening its examination of Hillary Clinton's e-mails from her tenure as Secretary of State. This mere days after news that Obamacare will go up substantially (59% in Minnesota, and well into double digits elsewhere, if this morning's AOL news feed is to be believed) and as questions about the Clinton Foundation's possible pipeline to government access have grown. None of these three points are good news for the Democratic nominee.

I must confess that I'm happy to see these developments. Quite bluntly, I think the FBI was cowardly not to indict Hillary Clinton months ago, or not at least send the case before a grand jury. I never understood why Director Comey was so hung up back in July on not being able to determine Mrs. Clinton's 'intent' anyway. I've never known that mere intent had any bearing on breaking a law; enforcement officers and agencies are supposed to follow the letter of it and let the jury worry about our if intentions had any bearing on a case at all. I feel more that the lack of indictment in July was more electioneering than yesterday's development. Why reopen the case if there's nothing there, particularly after surrendering it back then?

Trump's deficit jumped from 12% on October 23 to 2% this morning, according to ABC News. This is well within accepted margins of error, which are typically 3-4%. If this is a fair evaluation of a change in the wind (I'm not a fan of polls but accept that they can be insightful) it's too significant to discount. And the Trump campaign seems to be smelling blood: he's actually making campaign stops here in Michigan on Monday and then Pennsylvania, states given up for lost not very long ago. He too has the advantage that his October Surprise is fading in the rear view mirror while Hillary's troubles are closer in the sideview than they appear.

In short, this Presidential election isn't over. If I had to place a bet today, I'd say Clinton would win. But ask me again on Monday.

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