Gop in 2102: Still to Early to Tell

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won, by one vote, a very unscientific straw poll taken at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans. He edged out Ron Paul, 439-438, and was followed closely by Sarah Palin at 330 with Newt Gingrich at 321. The organizers basically just put names on cards and asked whoever wanted to turn them in to turn them in. They guessed at who would be running. Still, that does not mean no useful information can be garnered from the tally.

It does help the appearance of a wide open field for the GOP in 2102, especially as the votes were so tight and so many were left off. How might the field have been spread even thinner if a few more challengers had been listed, particularly more moderate Republicans (if there are any these days).

Most interesting, though, may be that Ron Paul was so high on the list. It was thought that support for him, though significant early on in the 2008 election cycle, had run its course. But perhaps the libertarian wing of the GOP is not so far from power. We may be seeing a real and substantial break of ranks in the party. In light of the very socialist trend of late, in the Republican party not much less than with the Democrats, the people may be ready for a more traditional brand of American conservatism: leave me alone outside of abject necessity.

Again, this really means squat this day. And it should be taken into account that southern Republicans tend to be more conservative too. But if this is where the GOP is headed, it can only make for a spirited race both for the party nomination and the White House in two years.