A Mixed Bag

Primary elections are happening all over the nation today, and incumbents in both parties are anxious. The Democrats are worried due to anti-incumbent sentiment as they have the most incumbents. The GOP is concerned because the Tea party movement has the potential to disrupt their plans. It should be a fascinating evening watching the returns trickle in.

Congress, dominated by the Democrats, stands at an approval rating of 29 percent, lower than at a similar time in 1994 when the ranking sat at 40%, and everyone on their side of the aisle knows what happened that November. Yet the sailing may not be all that clear for the Republican Party. Incumbents in Nevada and Iowa face what appear to be insurmountable challenges, while Tea party candidates may disrupt party favorites in many areas. The big trouble with that is polling data shows the loosely aligned Tea Party mavericks hold a rather muddled opinion among the general public themselves: roughly half of those surveyed distrust the movement. When you factor in a supposed 60% doubt among the electorate that the GOP can be trusted to fix our problems, there has to be concern on the right side too.

Nevertheless, with President Obama's ratings low, it would seem that the folks with the most to gain are still the Republicans. We should know more by this time tomorrow, and the real debate will not be over until deep into the fall. But our money is, for now, still with the GOP.