Egypt's Popular Uprising: the Great Unknown

Note: This is in response to a blog comment, but I think it is interesting enough to recount here. Please feel free to ask about whatever indefinite points you may find herein.

-Charles Martin Cosgriff


"In the long run, the next Egyptian leader will be the one who best captures the imagination of the Egyptian people. Or who comes to control the power in that nation. And who that may be, we simply do not know."

I suppose it's a good thing ......there's such a strong call for amending the Egyptian constitution as well then, isn't there? ;)"

Well, the answer apparently is yes. But that yet begs the question of who will actually see to it, and how. I really do not see how the mere removal of a dictator insures a positive outcome (I know you recognize that too); as has been said many times in this thread, I must respectfully submit that the evidence of history indicates that the more likely outcome with any given popular revolt is simply a new despotism. One disposed to writing its own constitution in its own favor, so to speak.

I'm afraid that I must disagree with regard to positive change coming from bottom up when popular uprisings are at play. The desire of the crowd, any crowd, is really rather indefinite; in this case, they hated Mubarak, and rightly so. But does the crowd truly grasp what it wants in place of him? Do the protesters really want what is objectively best for Egypt?

I rather believe that the will of the people needs to be harnessed by people who share the deepest feelings of the crowd yet know how to organize with respect to their (hopefully proper) desires. For a crowd ultimately is just a group of people, and groups don't lead: individuals do.

At the risk of stirring the pot again, what made the American Revolution successful was not the will of the people by itself but the coordination of that will by and through people who had a reasonably clear idea of what they wanted and how to get it. One hopes and prays that the Egyptian people fall into that category. At the end of the day, that's the best we can offer. Yet history is on the side of the skeptics.