Only Five Days Left

As we head down to the wire, the race for President appears to taking firm shape. Races are tightening in several states thought at one point to be safely for President Barack Obama. Swing states such as Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, and Virginia, once thought in the President's back pocket, are in play. But to whom do we listen? The Huffington Post and the Nate Silvers of the polling world are insisting that Obama's lead will hold. Yet Gallup polls and the Rasmussen Reports seem to say that Mitt Romney is ahead; Gallup in particular has the former Massachusetts Governor up significantly. By that measure, Romney appears an easy winner. Given that Rasmussen and Gallup are more reliable than many other polls, and it is fair to believe that Romney rather than the President holds the upper hand. Rasmussen has the President with 237 safe electoral votes as of today, while it pegs Romney with 206. As 270 such votes guarantee a win, the advantage, it is argued, is to Mr. Obama, However, that doesn't take into account that two states, New York and California make up for 84 of the President's safe votes. Most of his other solid support comes from smaller states with fewer electoral votes, and most is also concentrated in the northeast. Almost everything is at least competitive or favoring Mitt Romney. What it means, then, is that the so-called swing states hold the power. And they are increasingly trending Romney, according to the more trustworthy polls. The evening of November 6th will be a long one for the White House, and the time to January 20th short.