Friday, October 31, 2014

2014 should be good for Republicans

The 2014 off year elections are fast approaching, coming up this Tuesday, November 4th. We fully expect that the day will bring good news for the Republican Party, seeing as we have a decidedly unpopular Chief Executive at the helm. When dozens of members of your own party are distancing themselves from you, you aren't being held in particularly high esteem. When you factor in that the party seen as out of power generally gains ground in the biennial vote, this promises to be quite a good year for the GOP indeed.

Other factors almost certainly help the minority too, not the least of which is that the non-presidential election years usually bring out the more serious voter. Many people tend to view the presidential elections as the elections; after that, nothing much matters. What this means is that the low information voter came out in November 2012 and will reappear in late 2016. He is less likely to bother with this coming Tuesday.

Why does this help Republicans? First Lady Michelle Obama pretty much answered that: Democratic voters tend to be lazy voters. Lazy voters are not easily fired up, as opposed to the voters who are more passionate about democracy and getting their party in power. The more conservative voter shows up at the polls more consistently because the vote matters more to him. The liberal voter only cares about the big time. It's significant that most big Republican gains have occurred during the off year elections.

Yes, there are lazy and uninformed right wingers among the electorate. But we will go on record as saying that they are fewer and farther apart than their opponents. So while this year will be no 1994, we expect that November 4th will be a very good day for the Grand Old Party.

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