Now that the US Census Bureau has issued its report, the fight is surely on. As reported here a couple of days ago, with Republicans gaining in ares where they are strong and in control of most state governments, the main advantages appear to be theirs.
Still, the Democrats have some devices of their own. They will almost certainly employ the courts, as also mentioned before herein, and have a few things in their favor under current federal law. Various laws regarding minority representation in Congress will likely help them keep a few seats. No matter how you slice it, the fight will be long, shrill, and raucous.
The shame of the whole enterprise is that it shouldn't matter all that much. If everyone were to play fair, the lines would be drawn almost randomly according to a roughly equal measure of the population. That is, of course, a dream scenario. It will never happen regardless of who holds power. But the further and worst part of the effort is that it shouldn't matter because the national government shouldn't be so strong. If we were to have kept to our original Constitutional ideal, redistricting would not matter as much precisely because so much less power would be at stake. If there weren't so many spoils to divide, if longevity in the Congress didn't mean so much in terms of patronage and the ability to get more and greater goodies for your own state (hardly, in the end, a commendable position), then all of these gyrations would nearly laughable.
Yet they are not. That is perhaps the most significant commentary about the situation. We have come to accept that it's about what we can get for ourselves, whether as states or individuals. And that is truly sad.
Camelot has passed by. We no longer seek the ideal but the selfish. That's what's really wrong with America today.
Showing posts with label Congress redistricting 2010 elections 2012 elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Congress redistricting 2010 elections 2012 elections. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Monday, August 23, 2010
Can you say Redistribution of Power?
We have pointed out several times already that one of the most important issues not often raised in the 2010 election cycle concerns the Supreme Court: with the current makeup only slightly conservative, we need a Republican Senate in 2011 to keep President Obama in check. But the other rarely cited issue of nearly equal importance is the looming realignment of House seats which will surely bode ill for the left if the November vote is as Republican as it looks to be.
The GOP is poised to gain a few governorships, perhaps holding up to 32 by the end of the day November 2nd. But more important are the number of state houses which they may grab: some pundits are predicting gains of over 500 total legislative seats. In the Congressional arena itself, many Democrats are on the bubble as they won only marginally in districts generally Republican. But again, looking at the legislative races is where the long term effect of the 2010 elections may be most critical. Why? Because it is the state legislatures which shall control the redistricting process which will occur based on the 2010 Census numbers.
Texas for example looks to have 4 new congressional districts for 2012, and the GOP should keep control of its state house. The New York Senate and Ohio and Pennsylvania Houses of Representatives were only narrowly Democratic after 2008. Will they stay so for January 2011? The GOP even has a decent shot at taking the Alabama legislature, something it has not done since the 1870's.
Yet more bad news faces the left. Can older democratic states such as Michigan, which will lose seats in the second next Congress, continue to the practice of nearly guaranteeing a certain number of liberal seats? Will a population loss in our home state force a battle in 2012 between John Conyers and the newly elected Hansen Clarke for a lone liberal Congressional representative from around here? If the legislature can gerrymander two seats, it surely will; but what will it cost in terms of outstate Democratic officials? How many other rust belt states will face similar troubles?
It looks brighter every day for the GOP. If the victories pile up too much, we may see a Republican majority carved simply out of new Congressional districts. Yes, it's too early to know for sure. And yes, the liberals will surely fight legislative Congressional changes in the courts because its what they do when they don't get their way. Power to the People, until the people disagree with them. But the sun appears to be shining on the right for now, as clouds continue to gather over the Democratic National Committee.
The GOP is poised to gain a few governorships, perhaps holding up to 32 by the end of the day November 2nd. But more important are the number of state houses which they may grab: some pundits are predicting gains of over 500 total legislative seats. In the Congressional arena itself, many Democrats are on the bubble as they won only marginally in districts generally Republican. But again, looking at the legislative races is where the long term effect of the 2010 elections may be most critical. Why? Because it is the state legislatures which shall control the redistricting process which will occur based on the 2010 Census numbers.
Texas for example looks to have 4 new congressional districts for 2012, and the GOP should keep control of its state house. The New York Senate and Ohio and Pennsylvania Houses of Representatives were only narrowly Democratic after 2008. Will they stay so for January 2011? The GOP even has a decent shot at taking the Alabama legislature, something it has not done since the 1870's.
Yet more bad news faces the left. Can older democratic states such as Michigan, which will lose seats in the second next Congress, continue to the practice of nearly guaranteeing a certain number of liberal seats? Will a population loss in our home state force a battle in 2012 between John Conyers and the newly elected Hansen Clarke for a lone liberal Congressional representative from around here? If the legislature can gerrymander two seats, it surely will; but what will it cost in terms of outstate Democratic officials? How many other rust belt states will face similar troubles?
It looks brighter every day for the GOP. If the victories pile up too much, we may see a Republican majority carved simply out of new Congressional districts. Yes, it's too early to know for sure. And yes, the liberals will surely fight legislative Congressional changes in the courts because its what they do when they don't get their way. Power to the People, until the people disagree with them. But the sun appears to be shining on the right for now, as clouds continue to gather over the Democratic National Committee.
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