Kingmakers?

Rick Santorum has cruised to victory in three states: Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Sure, no delegates were awarded. But when one of your main rivals can win with majorities, not pluralities, in two of the states in question (and a solid plurality in the third) then Mitt Romney has to take notice.

It certainly shows that confidence in Romney is shallow, especially among conservative voters. Where he has won he's been expected to win: New Hampshire, Nevada, and Florida, and likely Maine this week. Yet that Caucus might become interesting if Ron Paul can make a strong showing there, as he plans to in any state with delegates granted proportional to the vote. If Paul can undercut Romney support there, it would be another chink in the Romney armor.

But what does this all mean for Michigan and Michigan Republican voters? After Maine's results are announced on February 11th, there are no more primaries or caucuses until the 28th, in Arizona, and right here in the Great Lakes State. With Romney hurting, might that put Michigan in a position to make a real difference in the GOP Presidential race?

How often have we been in such an ideal spot to perhaps crown a winner? Is it possible that Michigan could prove pivotal for the eventual nominee? Seeing as Super Tuesday, so called because of all the delegates awarded on that day of many primaries, etc., is the following Tuesday, March 6th, and seeing as momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher, our fair state may play a more important role in an election than it ever has before. A weak Romney showing in Maine, or especially a Ron Paul upset of some sort, combined with, say, Santorum wins here and in Arizona, would leave Romney in the fight of his political life.

When we examine the states holding elections on Super Tuesday, we see that eight of the 10 are significantly conservative, although as it stands right now only Romney and Paul will appear on the Virginia ballot (for legal reasons local to Virginia). From our vantage point this far away, it would seem that only Vermont and his home state of Massachusetts are locks for Mitt. As such, wins by Santorum or Gingrich or Paul on February 28th might play huge in the long run. A brokered convention, the first since 1976, isn't all that outlandish of a thought.

Will that happen? We have to think no, unfortunately. But not solely because Romney is still the preemptive favorite. A win in Michigan could change the course of the race so much that a non-brokered convention might be someone's else's day in the sun. And we could have created their dawn, while being the gloaming of someone's else's hopes. It is a very nice stool on which we perch.