Santorum up in Michigan

With two weeks to go before the Michigan Republican Primary and Super Tuesday waiting around the corner, recent polls show former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum ahead of Mitt Romney in his native state. One has Santorum up 33-28 percent, with Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul trailing. Another, though one with a wider margin of error, has Santorum up a whopping 39-24%.

Two weeks isn't much time normally. Yet in politics it can be an eternity, and polling figures can ad do change dramatically. So we should not put too much weight in them today. That, however, doesn't mean that certain points aren't invalid right now.

Romney needs Michigan. Yes, he's lived out of state for a long time, so long in fact that calling Michigan his home state might be a stretch. But in politics, perception is too often reality. A loss in his 'home' state could be (and will be) construed as bigger than it might actually be, seen less sensational glasses. Mitt Romney surely will not be out of the race if he loses Michigan. But he would be on the slippery slope.

Santorum should not rest too easily, despite this analysis. If he comes to be perceived as the front runner he will come under increasing attacks due to that very perception. Ron Paul has already lambasted him for his voting record in the Senate; it will only be a matter of time that the other candidates begin attacking him as well.

The bottom line is that Santorum is riding the crest of a wave while Romney seeks to hold his ground. The race is far from over. But Michigan, for now, has the catbird seat.