No Minority Clout from Michigan?

The heat is on for the August elections in Michigan, and the most interesting races may just be in the new 13th and 14th Congressional Districts in and around the Detroit area. With the Democrats having been aced out of at least one seat as a result of the redrawing of districts based on the 2010 Census, Democratic incumbents Gary Peters and Hansen Clarke are facing a showdown against each other in the 14th. Meanwhile, the 13th features a battle between long time Congress man John Conyers and a Detroit State Senator, Detroit State Representative, and a Westland State Senator. Senators Bert Johnson of Highland Park and Glenn Anderson of Westland, along with Representative Shanelle Jackson of Detroit. Also facing off in the 14th are Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence and former State Representative Mary Waters of Detroit.

Gary Peters has the ability to outspend Clarke, and Mayor Lawrence is being called a tough campaigner. Representative Conyers may be facing the toughest challenge of his political career. But perhaps the most interesting possibility, with both districts being wildly gerrymandered, is that Michigan will not lose one but both minority representatives in Congress.

With the various voting rights laws in place, it was widely thought that Conyers and Clarke would be given relatively safe seats to defend. Yet with the 14th District wildly (and even absurdly) stretched narrowly along the Detroit River, through the Grosse Pointes then back across northern Detroit, and finally up into Oakland County before finishing in Pontiac, Clarke's fate is nowhere near certain. Especially with the minority vote possibly spread quite thin among three candidates for the primary, he appears more than vulnerable.

Conyers' district on the other hand is probably safer. He retains a huge swath of Detroit, from the southwest and central parts of the City through the northwest. But the new 13th also contains a large part of suburban Wayne County, through Redford, Westland and Wayne. If Senator Johnson can split the Detroit vote it might just open the door for Glenn Anderson.

Before blaming all this on the GOP, one should remember that it is the mass exodus from Detroit and the effective dispersal of the minority vote which is the real culprit here. A point is reached where mere statistical reality can make it impossible to create secure seats for any given person, let alone group. Demanding particular outcomes can never be certain anyway. Criticize the Republicans if you wish; the Democrats would have gerrymandered too, yet been subject to the same statistical realities.

In the end, expect Conyers to win and Clarke to lose. The seats themselves will stay Democratic, unless both Conyers and Clarke should lose. That won't happen.

But the GOP can dream, can't it?