Is the Arab Spring Waning?

Egyptian leader Mohamed Morsi has taken Egypt upon himself. He has decreed new powers by which he claims he will be able to speed up the transition from the Mubarak regime into a democratic Egypt. Meanwhile, a civil war continues to rip apart Syria, and unrest threatens the peace in Gaza. All of this while the Middle East is still under the shadow of the vaunted Arab Spring which was supposed to move that area into the fold of supposedly enlighten democracies.

It's a dose of reality which, one would hope, might cause western liberals to rethink themselves and their positions. They simply don't want to accept that merely removing a dictator doesn't mean that better days are ahead. Indeed if history teaches us anything, it teaches that, far too often, it simply puts in place another dictator.

The supporters of the Arab Spring are little different than those who cheered the fall of the Shah of Iran in the late 1970s. But what was left in its wake? An Iran under a far greater tyranny which lasts until today. An Iran which, you may notice, was strangely unaffected by the protests within other Arabic nations.

So while there appears to have been some progress towards more democratic societies in the Middle East, the steps taken have been small and uncertain. And that's where there has been no widespread violence or upheaval. Only the richer nations seem to be weathering the storm well.

That says something, something the left and libertarians don't seem to recognize. There are two factors at play here. The first is that popular uprisings or popular movements generally only work out in the long run where there is a reasonably educated leadership. The transition from apartheid in South Africa to a reasonably stable democracy was fueled by a body politic which had leaders who respected the people and had some idea of how to lead and where to lead them. What they sought was accomplished over much time, and with the needed patience necessary to the long term health of the movement and its host nation as well. The second is that of prosperity. The Saudis and the Kuwaitis made reforms because, while the demand for change was extant, there was a corollary understanding that they were reasonably well off anyway. No one wanted to rock that boat too harshly, lest it list and eventually sink.

You can't just throw out a dictator without a solid alternative available. Even then, that alternative must be reasonable; can someone say Hitler? Far too many people have the idea that the solution to a dictator is merely his removal. We see in Egypt that that is nothing less than shortsighted. At worst, it will lead to a worse dictator, or even something worse than that. It could well lead to a civil war which will only put a nation light years behind attaining a true and good democracy.

Bahrain: More Middle Eastern Disquiet

Another Middle Eastern nation has lapsed into protest against its rulers. The island nation of Bahrain has seen massive protests in recent days, seeking political reform in the style of several of her neighbors.

This unsettling trend, while it will perhaps be worthwhile in the long run, may spell trouble when one looks at the big picture. Instability in the area cannot help oil prices, and too much of a spike with them cannot help any resurgence of the US and world economies. Israel too must be looking at the events with a troubled eye, as unrest cannot help her already tense relations with the nearby Arabic states. Toss in the fact that US Navy's 5th Fleet is stationed in Bahrain, and we have an important national security issue at hand.

This is not to be unsympathetic to the people of the nations in question, nor to their friends and supporters here in the Metro Detroit area who still maintain the bonds of kinship with their former countries. It is fair also to recognize that, if necessary change is to affect us, we may have to simply accept it in good grace so long as our interests are not violated. In the end, as with the recent events in Egypt and Tunisia, caution is required. Hopefully the reformers in the various nations will practice that as well.

Reporters in Egypt

The events in Egypt have certainly taken a frightening turn. That in itself is bad enough, for the sake of the Egyptian people. No matter how justified, revolutions tends to make things worse before they get better. If they get better at all.

Add into this scramble the threats against foreign reporters in the country. Anderson Cooper was attacked. An ABC News crew thought they were going to be beheaded. A Greek correspondent was stabbed, and many other journalists have found themselves in dire straits. The alleged cause is that Egypt is trying to create a news blackout, so that the government can make whatever moves it deems fit.

Perhaps. And if true, and it surely wouldn't be surprising if this were the case, then we have a further condemnation of the Mubarak administration. But the unasked and yet arguably most pertinent question is: what are they there for anyway?

To make the story public to the world, one supposes. Yet while that is a seemingly noble inspiration, are journalists obliged to put themselves at risk to get a story? Ought we, as a news craved nation, consider that maybe it isn't worth these folks putting themselves at such odds just to keep us glued to CNN?

Or is the truth even deeper and more questionable? Is it the drive for ratings and recognition by the various news sources and the desire for glory and affirmation among the individual reporters what truly guides their actions?

Jeffrey Schneider, a vice president at ABC News, assures us that all precautions are being taken for the safety of their employees. We can, of course, or at least should, take that for granted. But it still begs the question of whether they should be there at all.

It also does not address the issue of whether they hurt more than they help. As reporters become targets, it is at least arguable that they become more part of the problem than the solution, especially in areas where they cannot necessarily rely on the aid of their own people in the form of their home governments if they need it.

Is it the simple arrogance of the press which leads to these decisions? They do seem to feel that they are the demigods of human events with the right to go wherever whenever when they smell a story. It is not a mantle which they wear well.

Oil and Egypt

In the midst of all the turmoil in Egypt, it occurs to us that that one thing which always seem to accompany trouble in the Middle East are volatile oil prices. After trading reached $92 a barrel on Monday, prices dropped a bit this morning in light of news that the crisis in Egypt may not be particularly serious with regard to oil futures.

You don't say?

It appears to us here in the Wayne County Conservative Examiner's Office that oil prices are dictated by little more than fear. A BP crisis in the Gulf of Mexico means that there may be no oil in six or eight weeks, so prices spike. The mere threat of a coup in Nigeria sends the oil traders on a blind frenzy, almost expecting, it would seem, the taps to run dry any minute now. Now that Egypt is in the the throes of what may well be a popular revolution, the reaction of the oil people was to panic. Consequently, prices initially rose.

This despite the fact that Egypt is not a major oil producer and that remarkably little oil each day flows the area, either through a pipeline or the Suez Canal. True, there is always the possibility that the revolt will spread; Jordan is currently reshuffling their government, and Tunisia has already saw its leadership toppled. Nevertheless, when it comes having no real courage, oil traders appear the best at their job.

We would see cheaper oil if the buyers would take a chill pill and a deep breath. We would also see cheaper prices if domestic drilling and drilling in the Arctic were more freely allowed. Then we may not have to care very deeply about developments in the Mideast. Yet that too is stymied by another crowd who play on fear: rabid environmentalists.

What we need in this world is more backbone in the light of phantom dangers. We will never see that so long as the scare mongers drive our economics.