As I find myself home for lunch (working within a block and a half of your job can be a tremendous advantage for the erstwhile blogger) today I thought it wise to study the news as it develops. By great good fortune I see that there are events today which allow me the opportunity to expound on what I posted earlier this morning.
It appears that, contrary to my ominous warnings of about four hours ago, a Moslem cleric has acted in a way which I predicted he would not. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, has ordered a probe into possible election fraud from Friday's vote in the conservative Islamic nation. I had averred, given that his candidate seemed to have won and he had accepted the result, the prelate would never reconsider his position.
He has not, per se, at this point. But he has directed the Guardian Council to investigate allegations of fraud in this increasingly momentous event in Iran's history. Apparently the depth of the protests by the Iranian people have caused him to reassess his position. This after he on Saturday called the re-election of current President Ahmedinejad a 'divine assessment'.
Did I jump the gun in the wee hours of this day? It would not have been the first time in my 49 years on this orb that I have. Nevertheless, it creates an interesting situation. One that I shall monitor much closely than I had planned.
Showing posts with label Obama. Iran. Ahmedinejad. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Obama. Iran. Ahmedinejad. Show all posts
Monday, June 15, 2009
Elections in Iran
The government of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, backed by the 12 member Guardian Council, has declared itself the winner in the recent elections in their country. The protests of thousands of opposition voters, along with the relatively mild violence they have employed in trying to draw attention to their cause, has become a concern to the West. The protesters feel the election was rigged.
Consequently, the Ahmedinejad ruling party has reacted in a way that a dictatorship generally does, shutting down protest sites on the Internet, closing the offices of foreign journalists covering the activity, and even detaining overnight some of the top aides from opponent Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign. Even Mousavi's newspaper was interestingly unavailable Sunday; there are certainly in place all the earmarks of an autocracy unwilling to hand over power.
It won't happen easily. For starters, the Guardian Council apparently holds the real power in Tehran, witnessed by the recent action on the part of Mousavi himself to try and convince it to overturn the election results. Beyond the Council itself is the man with the most real authority in Iran, the Muslim cleric and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has endorsed the results. A conservative Islamic religious leader is not, in my humble opinion, a likely candidate to overturn on appeal an outcome he surely wanted.
So, what to do? Watch and wait, basically. We do not want or need another unstable nation in the Middle East. On that point alone I do not see President Barack Obama acting quickly, and to be fair, why should he? If Iran is to fall internally anything he might say or do to encourage it could be seen as threatening to the rest of the Arab world, and I don't see him wanting to risk that after his recent speech in Cairo. After the bad old days of aggressive Bush foreign policy, he wants nothing more than goodwill.
The problem is, does Ahmedinejad or Khamenei or the Guardian Council? And that is exactly why Obama's little fatherly talk in Egypt will fall on deaf ears in certain quarters no matter what. Some folks just aren't interested in playing fair no matter how much you cajole and plead.
Finally, to the question of whether Ahmedinejad really won in Iran, I have to say that we will likely never know. That fact itself tells us all we need to know about the leadership of that Persian Gulf nation. When your power is consolidated by closing offices and detaining supposedly free people, perhaps we already know the answer.
Consequently, the Ahmedinejad ruling party has reacted in a way that a dictatorship generally does, shutting down protest sites on the Internet, closing the offices of foreign journalists covering the activity, and even detaining overnight some of the top aides from opponent Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign. Even Mousavi's newspaper was interestingly unavailable Sunday; there are certainly in place all the earmarks of an autocracy unwilling to hand over power.
It won't happen easily. For starters, the Guardian Council apparently holds the real power in Tehran, witnessed by the recent action on the part of Mousavi himself to try and convince it to overturn the election results. Beyond the Council itself is the man with the most real authority in Iran, the Muslim cleric and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has endorsed the results. A conservative Islamic religious leader is not, in my humble opinion, a likely candidate to overturn on appeal an outcome he surely wanted.
So, what to do? Watch and wait, basically. We do not want or need another unstable nation in the Middle East. On that point alone I do not see President Barack Obama acting quickly, and to be fair, why should he? If Iran is to fall internally anything he might say or do to encourage it could be seen as threatening to the rest of the Arab world, and I don't see him wanting to risk that after his recent speech in Cairo. After the bad old days of aggressive Bush foreign policy, he wants nothing more than goodwill.
The problem is, does Ahmedinejad or Khamenei or the Guardian Council? And that is exactly why Obama's little fatherly talk in Egypt will fall on deaf ears in certain quarters no matter what. Some folks just aren't interested in playing fair no matter how much you cajole and plead.
Finally, to the question of whether Ahmedinejad really won in Iran, I have to say that we will likely never know. That fact itself tells us all we need to know about the leadership of that Persian Gulf nation. When your power is consolidated by closing offices and detaining supposedly free people, perhaps we already know the answer.
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