When I turned the coverage on about an hour before post time - for those out there even more neophytes than yours truly, post time is when the race is scheduled to start - I found myself wondering which horse with the longest odds had ever won the race. Then I saw a horse named Rich Strike was entered at 80-1 odds. And I knew, I simply, honestly, absolutely knew, knew beyond question, that Rich Strike was going to win the 2022 Kentucky Derby. There was no doubt in my mind.
With that knowledge, and I will call it knowledge as I was that certain, I thought about going online and placing a bet on the horse. But every single reason why that would have been stupid marched to the front of my mind.
He's an 80-1 longshot, odds determined by experts on such things.
The horse wasn't even in the race until the day before. He got in only after a last minute scratch. What does that say, in practical terms, about its chances?
Rich Strike was purchased by its current owners for $30,000, a significant amount of money to most of us but a pittance for a high level racehorse. What should that tell anyone, especially a guy who, to repeat, knows nothing about horses?
You can't invest real money on something you know nothing about. That's dumb.
You're going to feel like a fool to lose $100 on a horse who had no reasonable chance to win. Yes, I was seriously thinking I would put a C-Note on Rich Strike. I mean, hey, 80-1 odds? That's an $8,000 payoff. But if I had bet and lost, none of you would ever know.
So I talked myself out of placing the bet. And that 80-1 horse came in exactly like I knew it would.
To be sure, it wouldn't have put me on easy street. But this blog wouldn't have been so rueful today either, because I knew Rich Strike was going to win.
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